Robust Bayesian analysis, an attempt to improve Bayesian sequencing

Autor(en)

Franz Weninger, Peter Steier, Walter Kutschera, Eva Maria Wild

Abstrakt

Bayesian sequencing of radiocarbon dates deals with the problem that in most cases there does not exist an unambiguous way to define the so-called prior function, which represents information in addition to the result of the radiocarbon measurements alone. However, a random choice of a particular prior function can lead to biased results. In this paper, 'robust Bayesian analysis', which uses a whole set of prior functions, is introduced as a more reliable method. The most important aspects of the mathematical foundation and of the practical realization of the method are described. As a general result, robust Bayesian analysis leads to a higher accuracy, but paid for with reduced precision. Our investigations indicate that it seems possible to establish robust analysis for practical applications.

Organisation(en)

Isotopenphysik

Journal

Radiocarbon

Band

52

Seiten

962-983

Anzahl der Seiten

22

ISSN

0033-8222

Publikationsdatum

2010

Peer-reviewed

Ja

ÖFOS 2012

1030 Physik, Astronomie, 107001 Archäometrie

Link zum Portal

https://ucrisportal.univie.ac.at/de/publications/73e017fa-511b-49c5-a303-2ed0dafbe197