Publications

Robust Bayesian analysis, an attempt to improve Bayesian sequencing

Author(s)
Franz Weninger, Peter Steier, Walter Kutschera, Eva Maria Wild
Abstract

Bayesian sequencing of radiocarbon dates deals with the problem that in most cases there does not exist an unambiguous way to define the so-called prior function, which represents information in addition to the result of the radiocarbon measurements alone. However, a random choice of a particular prior function can lead to biased results. In this paper, 'robust Bayesian analysis', which uses a whole set of prior functions, is introduced as a more reliable method. The most important aspects of the mathematical foundation and of the practical realization of the method are described. As a general result, robust Bayesian analysis leads to a higher accuracy, but paid for with reduced precision. Our investigations indicate that it seems possible to establish robust analysis for practical applications.

Organisation(s)
Isotope Physics
Journal
Radiocarbon
Volume
52
Pages
962-983
No. of pages
22
ISSN
0033-8222
Publication date
2010
Peer reviewed
Yes
Austrian Fields of Science 2012
1030 Physics, Astronomy, 107001 Archaeometry
Portal url
https://ucrisportal.univie.ac.at/en/publications/73e017fa-511b-49c5-a303-2ed0dafbe197